After conducting the medal ranking forecast exercise for the 2022 Winter Olympic Games in Beijing (forecasts and comparison with actual results available on this site), here's a new iteration of this exercise for the 2024 Paris Olympic Games!

​

This forecast is based on the results of the World Cup/World Championships of various disciplines and Olympic events from 2022 to 2024. It includes results from World Cup circuits or equivalent circuits, and World Championships.

​

More than 2450 results were used for this forecasting work.

​

To simplify the process, podiums from international competitions are aggregated for each Olympic event to determine each nation's probability of gold, silver, and bronze medals.

For full transparency in the process, details of the events considered and all assumptions made are outlined on the dedicated page.

​

Numerous factors may influence the actual result compared to this model (athlete selection, qualification rules, injuries, etc.), but it will be interesting to compare this statistical forecast with the actual results this summer in Paris.

​

This ranking will be gradually updated until the Olympic Games (results expected to cease at the end of June or early July). Values are rounded to the nearest 0.5.

​

Current result cut-off date: Sunday, June 23, 2024 (2,463 results)

​

​