The forecasts are established based on the following assumptions and calculation method:

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• International results from 2022 to 2024 are considered. Continental or national competitions are not taken into account.

• The reference competitions for each discipline are specified in the table below:

To simplify:

- Inclusion of World Cup events from 2022, 2023, and 2024, or equivalents (before the start of the Olympic period).

- Inclusion of results from the World Championships held between early 2022 and the end of June 2024.

• In these reference competitions, for each type of Olympic event, each podium is counted:

  • For each nation, the percentage of 1st place in the counted reference events determines the potential for GOLD medals (For example, if nation A or its athletes win 2 events out of the 8 counted, it gives a potential of 2/8 = 0.25 GOLD medals).

  • For each nation, the percentage of 2nd place in the counted reference events determines the potential for SILVER medals.

  • For each nation, the percentage of 3rd place in the counted reference events determines the potential for BRONZE medals.

  • By adding up all nations, for each Olympic event, we therefore arrive at a potential of 1 for GOLD, 1 for SILVER, and 1 for BRONZE.

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• The potentials for each Olympic event are then added up.

• Limitations related to maximum athlete quotas per nation are not taken into account in the current version of the ranking.

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• Coefficients applied to different results:

  • Results from 2022: Coefficient of 0.5

  • Results from 2023: Coefficient of 0.75

  • Results from 2024: Coefficient of 1

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Clarifications on certain sports:

• Basketball 5x5 / Handball / Football: Competitions from the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games (held in 2021) are included to avoid having only one result as a reference.

• Boxing / Weightlifting / Wrestling: Results from non-Olympic weight categories are not counted. However, some athletes may have chosen to change categories.

• Road cycling: Since athletes have very different race schedules, only results from the World Championships and Olympic Qualifiers are considered.

• Climbing: As the Combined event (Bouldering + Lead) is not present in the World Cup, only the World Championships are considered for this event.

• Football: Men's selection rules for the Olympics being very specific, this prediction is less accurate.

• Surfing: Results from representatives of Hawaii are included in the USA's results.

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