2022 - Forecast Assumptions | OlympicMedalForecast

BEIJING 2022
(Olympic Winter Games)

Medal standings adjusted for each country's population

Medal standings adjusted for each country's GDP

Medal standings by number of point

Ranking of the number of sports with medals per nation.

Medal standings adjusted for the number of athletes in each delegation

% of athletes who won medals out of the total athletes per delegation

Average age of medal-winning athletes per nation

Number of honorable places (4th to 10th place) and % of podium finishes among the Top 10

The forecasts are based on the following assumptions and calculation method:

The reference competitions for each discipline are specified in the table below.

To simplify:

- Inclusion of World Cup events during the 2021/2022 season (before the start of the Olympic period).

- When there is no World Cup circuit, or it is not sufficiently identified, results from the World Championships from 2018 to 2021 are considered.

- Only "worldwide" competitions are considered. Continental competitions are not included, for example.

In these reference competitions, for each type of Olympic event, each podium is counted:
- For each nation, the percentage of 1st place in the counted reference events determines the potential for GOLD medals (For example, if nation A or its athletes win 2 events out of the 8 counted, it gives a potential of 2/8 = 0.25 GOLD medals).
- For each nation, the percentage of 2nd place in the counted reference events determines the potential for SILVER medals.
- For each nation, the percentage of 3rd place in the counted reference events determines the potential for BRONZE medals.
- By adding up all nations, for each Olympic event, we therefore arrive at a potential of 1 for GOLD, 1 for SILVER, and 1 for BRONZE.